Brexit: Conclusive evidence for the Cock-Up theory of History

Reading back through “the story so far” , a short piece I wrote just over a week ago, it seems like such ancient history, that I’m trying to decipher some Babylonian runic script.

What is this Gove I spoke about, what ever happened to Andrea Leadsom?

Now we know. Theresa May, either through astute manouevring, or more likely just being the last person standing, has ended up as PM. The pressure Andrea Leadsom placed on herself through her self-inflicted smear campaign, was too much and she realised that she had done sufficient damage, that even the Tory members would not vote her in.

We will see in the next few days, which Brexiteers have gained from the referendum vote, whether Gove or Boris are given jobs, other than cleaning out the loo at Number 10. Will we finally see the last of Whippingdale….

Let’s hope that Liz Truss is moved from Defra. She has been universally decried as useless, and despite a few feeble efforts, has not even managed to provide comedy value in the way that OPatz was so effortlessly able to. 

To my mind, George Eustice is in a strong position to move up to Secretary of State, from his current 2nd in command position. He has been a leading Brexiteer voice and understands agricultural policy, which will be one of the largest domestic policy reform areas to arise from Brexit, if we do actually end up leaving the EU. His grasp of the implications of Brexit on environmental policy was poor, but those few Defra civil servants who are left in Nobel House will I expect have their briefing papers already written, and that will bring him swiftly back to reality, and the sheer enormity of the task.

Meanwhile Labour continue to implode. Labour MPs fearful of losing not only their own seats, but any collective influence within Parliament, are mustering for a fight for the leadership. Angela Eagle has finally committed to challenge Corbyn, though her launch yesterday was a minor disaster – could Leadsom really have deliberately timed her announcement to stitch up Eagle? It’s no secret that Tories joined the Labour Party in their thousands last summer to help vote in Corbyn, knowing how much good his leadership would do their own chances with the electorate. Eagle is forever tarnished with her support for the Iraq war.

The other contender, Owen Smith, a former lobbyist for big Pharma, is waiting for the Labour national executive committee to decide whether Corbyn will even get on the candidate list for the leadership contest, before deciding whether to stand. If the NEC decide not to put Corbyn on the list automatically, he will find it very difficult to muster the 50 MPs he needs to be nominated. Even though Union members have lost faith in him and his chances of becoming PM, Union leaders are threatening the Labour Party with legal action if they decide he needs to get MPs behind him, before he can become a candidate in the election.

It’s notable how the Conspiracy Theories are swirling around these days – on both the Left and the Right. The main Left conspiracy is that Blairites have plotted the downfall of Corbyn since day one and are now mid-Coup; the Right conspiracies abound, but the main one now is that May will fail to invoke Article 50 and Brexit will be quietly killed off. IDS was also talking about black ops against Andrea Leadsom.

But take a step back and just look at the position we’re now in.

Cameron, who started the whole sorry process by committing to a Referendum (which is not our normal form of democracy), in order to supposedly heal a decades-long internal rift within the Conservative Party.

The lead Brexiteers – Farage, Gove and Boris, have started the fire and run from the building.

The Neolibertarian plotters who led the Leave campaign from behind the scenes are lying on the battlefield, wounded or missing in action. Chief among them, Dominic Cummings, was ditched by Gove even before Gove was ditched by the Tory Party. The Neoliberal’s second best hope, Andrea Leadsom proved most politically toxic to herself. The new PM is already stealing economic and political policies from the left.

The new Prime Minister Theresa May has no mandate from the Country.  Though she has the support of the Conservative MPs, we will never know whether she had the support of the Conservative Party Membership and many will feel cheated that they were not given the opportunity to choose.

Labour MPs, who had the support of the electorate, are at war with the Labour Party membership, most of whom are Momentum supporters but who have only voted for Corbyn as leader. And the Union leaders, who support Corbyn, are at odds with their membership, who don’t support him.

If ever there was a prima facie case for the Cock-Up Theory of History, this is it.

 

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About Miles King

UK conservation professional, writing about nature, politics, life. All views are my own and I don't write on behalf of anybody else.
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11 Responses to Brexit: Conclusive evidence for the Cock-Up theory of History

  1. Mark Gibbens says:

    Thank goodness we ‘got our Country back’!

    You couldn’t make it up.

  2. David Dunlop says:

    Time to impose direct rule from Belfast, or Edinburgh? (!)

  3. Labour Party election rules are clear. In the event of a vacancy,there are conditions to be fulfilled by candidates. In the event of a challenge, there are conditions to be fulfilled by challengers. No conditions are specified for a leader who is challenged. It follows, regardless of the merits or otherwise of a challenge, that the leader would be on the ballot paper.

    I don’t subscribe to the theory that Corbyn’s supporters are all wrecking crew Tories or nasty Trotskyites, having seen no evidence in its favour. On the contrary, I think they are people who generally agree with, say, Stephen Law and John Gribbin about the direction the country should be going in. If so, we have the paradox that a strongly pro-Remain new membership is backing Corbyn against his MPs, while the reason those MPs have lost confidence in him is his lack of enthusiasm for Remain.

    • Miles King says:

      Thanks Paul. I’m not a Labour Party member or supporter, though depending on what happens today, I may part with £3.

      What does seem clear to me, is that there are entryists, Trotskyite or otherwise, who are influencing events within the party, including many idealistic people who joined Labour in the belief that it offered new politics.

      Regardless, Labour are at risk of parting company with a significant proportion of their core electorate. And if this happens they risk letting UKIP in – Arron Banks is no fool and is already targeting 40 or 50 Labour seats where there was a strong vote for Brexit.

      • Indeed. If the “entryists” include “many idealistic people who joined Labour in the belief that it offered new politics”, is that a bad thing and are these not people who should be listened to? The collapse of Labour in Scotland shows what can happen when Labour is not seen to stand for anything. It becomes vulnerable to any party wth convictions, whatever those convictions are; even parties as diverse as UKIP and SNP

      • Miles King says:

        No, I meant the entryists were doing the influencing.

  4. Stuart Brown says:

    Coincidentally I just blogged about Brexit certainly be the death of the Whig Theory of History: https://stuartbrown75.wordpress.com/2016/07/12/june-23rd-was-the-day-that-whig-history-ate-itself/

  5. Nimby says:

    When will we (the voters) see the parliamentary reform so desperately needed, and dare I say deserved? If this absolute and utter debacle has shown us one thing it’s that we have a parliamentary / party system not fit for purpose? Self serving politics enacted like a soap opera should have no place in today’s society?

    Currently (according to Parliament.UK) we have 798 Lords a leaping at £300 a day (or is it half an hour)? Outgoing PM patronage – debts to be paid etc.?

    You get what you deserve if you leave a status quo because of fear of change? Then again it seems our politicians (and quite possibly their civil servants) can only come up with one plan at a time with no plan B? Parliamentary bubble seems to have created politicians who are adrift from reality and public opinion?

    Rant over ….

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